Pandemic could hurt state's economy, Flu outbreak has the potential to slow W.Va.'s

Reading the federal government's national response plan for thenext pandemic can make your palms sweat. The implications for WestVirginia's economy may cause some state leaders and business ownersto lose sleep.

According to federal health officials, "A pandemic is a globaldisease outbreak. An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza Avirus emerges for which there is little or no immunity in the humanpopulation, begins to cause serious illness and then spreads easilyperson-to-person worldwide."

While attention is currently focused on bird flu as the possiblecause of a pandemic, "it is important to note that bird flu is notyet easily transmitted from human to human and no human cases havebeen reported in the United States," noted a prepared statementissued by the governor's office in December.

It's not universally agreed that the next pandemic will be causedby avian flu. But infectious disease experts do pretty much agreethat pandemics are like hurricanes and earthquakes: They happen. Theexperts also agree that the nation needs to be prepared.

Mike Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota,said the next pandemic will be like a 12- to 18-month globalblizzard. He said the world's just-in-time economy "has set us up fora lot of problems." Osterholm spoke Monday at the 2006 annualconference of the Society of American Business Editors and Writers inMinneapolis.

West Virginia's economy may be particularly vulnerable to apandemic caused by avian flu. Consider:

* Travelers spent $3.4 billion in West Virginia in 2004, accordinga study released last year by the state Division of Tourism. Much ofthat revenue could be at risk if a pandemic caused people to decideto stay home.

* Last year, state government's share of gambling profits amountedto about $370 million. That money could be at risk if a pandemiccaused people to avoid crowded places like the state's four racetrackcasinos.

* Poultry is West Virginia's leading agriculture industry,accounting for $219 million - 51.8 percent - of West Virginia'sagricultural cash receipts in 2004. Flocks could be in danger ifthere's an avian flu outbreak, and the industry would be in troubleif people quit eating poultry products.

Tiffany Wu, Reuters' Taipei bureau chief from 2002 until February,said that when Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, hit Asiain 2003, the news service split its Taiwan bureau into two officesand "we bought face masks, goggles, special suits, and handsanitizers. They refused to let you in an elevator without a facemask."

The fear of SARS in Taiwan was overblown. "Tuberculosis kills16,000 in Taiwan annually," Wu said. "SARS killed 40."

Although the fear was overblown, "the economic impact was veryreal," she said.